“This Supreme Court draft is the culmination of a reactionary Republican offensive”

Yes and no ! No, because the decisions of the Supreme Court cannot be appealed, they are taken completely independently, in principle in complete confidentiality (which was broken yesterday, with the publication of this working document). On the other hand, you thus raise the question of the place that this decision will take in the campaign for the mid-term elections, scheduled for November.

It cannot be overemphasized how this warning shot can have an impact on public opinion, in the run-up to the election. The democrats find there a cause which unites them, all currents combined. A subject of mobilization, beyond social groups and origins, which can allow them to go on the offensive against the Republicans, and to find certain segments of the electorate who had turned away from them for a year, like independents. Despite very low unemployment (3.6%), the Biden administration was indeed facing very hostile winds. Inflation is devastating, the White House’s ambiguities on migration policy expose it to harsh criticism from Republicans, as is high crime. The Democrats have found no more parade in the culture war unleashed by the Republicans, especially about school programs. But the possible disappearance of the right to abortion changes this whole political context.

The Biden administration and women’s rights organizations believe abortion is protected by the 14th Amendment, which gives all citizens equal protection under the law. In a press release published this morning, the White House calls for general mobilization in the face of this upcoming decision, in particular in the run-up to the November elections. “I believe that a woman’s right to choose is fundamental”says Joe Biden.“If the Court does overturn Roe, it will be up to our nation’s elected officials at all levels of government to protect women’s right to choose, continues the president. And it will be up to voters to elect pro-choice representatives in November. »

The Democrats are obviously mobilized and upwind against this upcoming decision. “It’s a dark and disturbing morning for America”said the Chuck Schumer, the leader of the party in the Senate, referring to “the biggest restriction of rights in the last 50 years”. “We will fight like the devils”, has already warned the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, who wants to anchor the right to abortion in the state constitution. But at the federal level, it should be noted that the Democrats have failed in recent months to pass a text that would have made it possible to transform Roe v. Wade into law. Senator Bernie Sanders called on Monday evening for general mobilization on this subject, but the room for maneuver seems very narrow. This would require that not a single Democratic vote is missing in the Senate (divided 50/50 between the two parties) and that the rule of “filibuster” be abandoned, to vote by a simple majority, and not with a super majority of 60 votes.

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