May 13 (Reuters) – The economic outlook for the United States has deteriorated and inflation is expected to remain higher than expected for some time, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) survey released on Friday shows.
The 34 professional forecasters surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed expect real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.3% in the second quarter, down 1.9 percentage points from the last survey three years ago. month.
US GDP expansion is estimated at 2.3% in 2023 and 2% in 2024, figures lower than previous estimates.
Forecasters expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the current quarter to come out at 7.1% year on year, down from 3.8% in the last survey. They also predict that the PCE price index (personal consumption expenditures) will be 5.7% over one year in the second quarter, and no longer 3.1%.
Their forecasts for the CPI and PCE indices have also been revised upwards for the whole of 2022 and 2023.
Despite the weakening of growth prospects in the United States, forecasters anticipate only a slight rise in unemployment.
According to them, the US unemployment rate will be 3.6% in the second quarter and then 3.5% in Q3 and Q4. In 2022 and 2023, it should stand at 3.6% before increasing to 3.8% over the following two years. (Report Lindsay Dunsmuir; French version Laetitia Volga, told by Sophie Louet)